Math and odds are important parts of Texas Hold’em poker. James Bond knows this (of course). In the final hand of Casino Royale, four players move all-in on the river and Bond scoops the $115 million pot, thanks to smart play.
These were the cards on the board:
And these were the players’ hands:
Player 1: Ks-Qs
Player 2: 8c-8d
Le Chiffre: Ac-6h
James Bond: 7s-5s
As we can se, Bond had an unbeatable hand on the turn, but with the help of the odds calculator we can find out what his chances of winning the pot were before the flop and on the flop. This is the result:
Player 1: 34.51% chance of winning
Player 2: 30.87% chance of winning
Le Chiffre: 22.18% chance of winning
James Bond: 12.30% chance of winning.
As we can see, Bond had the by far worst hand before the flop. Even the evil Le Chiffre had a bigger chance of winning at this point, even though Ac-6h is a rather crappy hand, not worthy of a super-villain. .
On the flop:
Player 1: 15.00% chance of winning
Player 2: 47.69% chance of winning
Le Chiffre: 9.02% chance of winning
James Bond: 28.29% chance of winning.
Bond’s chances improve greatly thanks to his open-ended straight flush draw. Le Chiffre is in a bad spot, but player 2 has the best hand with three eights.
The 4s on the turn was the perfect card for Bond, and he was cool enough to allow the other players to improve their hands on the river. The Ace was another perfect card as it made Bond’s three opponents move all-in for crazy amounts of money. Bond naturally knew that he had the best possible hand and he could just relax and collect all the chips.
So, what’s the lesson here? Probably none at all – you shouldn’t use James Bond movies as a source for poker strategy, even though gambling is a popular theme. But you can clearly see that the value of hands change dramatically throughput a Texas Hold’em hand. Bond took maximum advantage of this.
Please use the Poker Odds Calculator below and learn the odds for Bond’s hand and any other hands of poker.
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No thanks, I'm not interested in news about 007
July 12th, 2013 at 19:25
So what are we supposed to think about the action after the flop, which we conveniently aren’t shown? One villain has middle set, another has top and bottom pair and there’s not enough betting between them to get Bond off an up and down straight flush draw? Even if our hero makes a flush or straight on the turn, between the other two there are eight redraw outs to a full house or quads, so it’s about one in eight that even if Bond fills his draw (except with the mortal nuts, about 12 to 1 against) on the turn he’s still beaten on the river. These are supposed to be the final four in a high-stakes no-limit freezeout? Where do I sign up for the next one? Anyone who would stick around with Bond’s draw on that flop is welcome at my table any time.
The only thing that might make sense is that Le Chiffre cold-decked himself knowing Vesper and the account number was in his pocket and thinking playing Whac-A-Mole with Bond’s wedding tackle would be enough to get the password. Otherwise this final hand ruins the whole big poker game story arc. It’s more ludicrous than The Man’s straight flush against Aces full in the stud game with the Cincinnati Kid.